Paul Kengor CommentariesNovember 8, 2024

Donald Trump Can Thank Catholics for His Big Win

COMMENTARY: They rendered their verdict decisively on Nov. 5.

In the immediate weeks of polling prior to the Nov. 5 presidential election, something curious was happening among evangelical Christian voters that deeply concerned the pro-life movement and advocates of religious freedom. 

In past elections, the evangelical vote had been the most dependable for conservative Republican candidates. That vote regularly came out in droves. White evangelicals supported the pro-life candidate by two-thirds or three-quarters or more. They were also reliable activists, canvassing for ballots, handing out literature and volunteering at polls.

For the year 2024, however, those evangelicals seemed down on Donald Trump, or at least less enthusiastic. Their decreased support concerned conservative Catholics worried about what they perceived as a deep, real and unprecedented threat to pro-life gains and religious freedom by Kamala Harris. What would those Catholics do without those evangelicals?

Well, judging from exit polls, those Catholics would respond by voting eagerly and overwhelming for the Republican presidential ticket. They came out so decisively for the ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance (a Catholic) that they offset any waning numbers from evangelicals. 

Put bluntly, those Catholics got Donald Trump elected.

We will see varying survey numbers on the Catholic vote in coming weeks. They will differ just as varying polling organizations had different estimates predicting the presidency and other contests. But at the moment, the Catholic numbers for Trump are extraordinary.

An NBC News exit poll shows that Catholics preferred Trump-Vance over Harris-Walz by a whopping 58%-40% (with Catholics representing 22% of all voters). Among white Catholics, the margin was 61%-35%. The Washington Post exit poll shows a 56%-41% margin.

The state-by-state margins in pivotal swing states are likewise extraordinary. 

According to data collected and posted by the organization Catholic Vote, Catholics in Michigan voted Trump-Vance over Harris-Walz by an astounding 20%. In Pennsylvania, Catholics were likewise decisive for Trump, by 14%. In Wisconsin, it was 16%. In North Carolina, 17%. In Florida, the margin was astounding: 29%. 

In states where the Trump margin of victory was only 1%-2%, Catholic ballots made the difference. Brian Burch of Catholic Vote put it this way, “Catholic voters played a decisive role in the historic victory of Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. … These numbers are shocking and could prove to be the largest margin among Catholics in a presidential race in decades.”

That might well be true.

The juxtaposition to previous races is quite striking. In most presidential elections, the overall Catholic vote tends to reflect the general vote. The word “catholic” means “universal,” and the Church in America is also universal in the way it tends to represent the wider voting public. Because Catholics have comprised 20%-30% of the U.S. population for a long time, with Republicans and Democrats and Independents scattered among them, they constitute a natural sample size of the country as a whole. That “Catholic” vote will include both the daily communicant and the person who walks through the parish door only once or twice a year at Christmas or Easter. 

A more telling predictor of the vote is religious seriousness (for lack of a better description). The self-identified Catholic who never misses Sunday Mass or goes to daily Mass and tends to be devoutly pro-life on abortion is more likely to vote Republican. Conversely, if the self-identified Catholic who rarely goes to Mass, is largely secular in outlook and supports the “pro-choice” position and the “LGBTQIA+” agenda is more likely to vote Democrat.

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